On this site, I once wrote the following.
The Magical 30% — or One Third of Any People
In the year 2000, I learned that 30% of Russians still thought Stalin was great for Russia. If you know anything about Russian history, you might question that assumption, especially when a major Soviet paper published that 20 million died as victims of Stalin’s repressions. [Ref]
There is just something about this One Third thing, or approximately 30%. It’s not magical, but you will notice that 31% of Americans are in that Authoritative God group.
Here are more interesting stats:
- 30% of care givers die before the people they care for. [Ref]
- 30% of Americans own guns.
- Richard Nixon’s APPROVAL rating hovered right around 30% his last year and then dropped to 24% when he resigned. Within a year it jumped up to 27% [Ref1] [Ref2]
- 30% of depressed people do not receive treatment. [Ref]
- 30% of adults at some point in their lives have an anxiety disorder. [Ref]
- 30% of Americans have had an alcohol-use disorder. [Ref]
- To save the Earth, 30% of the planet must be protected. [Ref]
- 30% of those who use marijuana seem to have some degree of marijuana dependency. [Ref]
- 30% of Americans have no savings. [Ref]
- 30% of Americans live close to the edge of poverty. [Ref]
- Schools fail to educate at least 30% of our students. [Ref]
- 30% of all people are obese. [Ref]
- 30% of people are late to work at least once each month. [Ref]
- 30% of young people text while driving. [Ref]
- 30% of Americans don’t have access to a year-round bed. [Ref]
- 30% of millennials say they feel lonely. [Ref]
- 30% of people have anemia due to iron deficiency due to diet. [Ref]
It’s not magical, just statistical.
Historians and pundits point out that, at any given time, about 30% of a society becomes radical, extreme, paranoid, and most importantly, tribal
In fact, as I’m writing this, the image below holds a tweet that went viral talking about this 30% or ⅓ of a population. Because we are a non-political organization, I will not post whether we agree or disagree with its message, but we will report it.
Tribal behavior explains why they ignore reality, ignore cognitive dissonance, and especially ignore the teachings of their chosen God.
What I Got Wrong
Well, I should first pat myself on the back for the final synthesis: It’s not magical, just statistical. But, what I have learned since is that human populations tend to break into three groups: a stable third, a flexible middle, and a vulnerable third.
In economics [don’t forget the political side to economics] without regulation, Communism, Socialism, Libertarianism, and Capitalism all eventually create a society with wealth in the hands of the oligarchy and a persistent bottom third lacking the basics and is very unstable. They learn quickly how expensive it is to be poor.
And I mixed up three separate groups:
- The Identity-Anchored Third — political and religious groups, with a psychological constant: they resist change, interpret criticism as attack, and prefer certainty over accuracy.
- The Epidemiological Third — anxiety disorders, eating disorders, depression, etc.
- The Socioeconomic Third — no savings, heavy debt, housing insecurity.
But again, the synthesis nailed it: It’s not magical, just statistical.
Have You Heard About the MAGICAL 3.5%?
This number really does seem magical.
In 2011 two political scientists from Harvard, Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan published a landmark study. Their book, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict outlined their findings, which almost seemed magical.
They analyzed 323 major political campaigns from 1900 to 2006, comparing violent vs nonviolent movements and discovered nonviolent movements succeeded far more often. The tipping point was the participation. The magic number of 3.5%.
When at least 3.5% of the population engaged in sustained, nonviolent action, every movement succeeded.
Not “most,” but every one.
The problem with sociology is “environment” changes.
It’s not a hard rule of nature but a pattern, and patterns change because the environment changes, governments change, digital surveillance has increased, and movements have become less disciplined.
Until Now
No Kings
This one is quite disciplined. People are standing shoulder to shoulder, in non-violence. Let the government be violent. If we can get 3.5% of our population on the streets we can move mountains. That’s the magic number.
The Maharishi Effect
From the Beatles to the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson to a study. The Maharishi Effect claims that a relatively small group of people practicing meditation could measurably affect the surrounding population and reduce crime or violence.
And so this claim was tested. Demographics were studied, and those locations with similar demographics were compared when one group had at least 1% of their population meditating.
The results were amazing. Similar demographics differing in that small percentage meditating, had less crime, fewer school truancies, fewer divorces . . . the list went on. The results were also criticized. A Washington DC study produced values so extreme (that there was a 1 in a billion chance the results were just coincidental) that two independent statisticians confirmed them but still rejected the interpretation.
The results demonstrated that a small, coherent minority can produce outsized effects in a large system.
Quietly more and more are accepting the results of a small group affecting the whole. And the Maharishi Effect involves just 1% of the population.
Hope
This is where we are now. If we’re going to make it through these rough times, we have to stick together in hope and meditation. Religious people call meditation prayer. Some say prayer is talking to the Creator, while meditation is listening.
No matter. It’s uniting that gives us hope.
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”
Margaret Mead
